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GMP in IPO: What is Grey Market Premium and How Does it Work?

Imagine an election season where voting is complete, but results are yet to be announced. News channels begin predicting outcomes—some forecast a landslide victory, while others expect a close contest. Sometimes these predictions are accurate, and sometimes they are not. This uncertainty is exactly how the Grey Market Premium (GMP) works for IPOs. Like exit polls, GMP tries to predict listing gains before the stock officially lists, but it is never a guarantee.

Many investors hear about GMP and immediately assume assured profits. However, GMP is only an indicator of market sentiment, not a confirmation of listing performance. Let’s break down the concept step by step to understand how it really works.

By Shravan Thakur Published August 31, 2025.

What is Grey Market Premium (GMP)?

Grey Market Premium refers to the extra amount investors are willing to pay for IPO shares in an unofficial market before the shares are listed on the stock exchange. This unofficial and unregulated market is known as the grey market.

For example, if an IPO issue price is ₹100 and the GMP is ₹50, it means buyers in the grey market are willing to pay ₹150 per share. This reflects their expectation that the stock will list at a premium. However, this is only an expectation—not a guarantee.

When Does the Grey Market Start?

The grey market usually becomes active once the IPO price band is announced, typically 10–15 days before the IPO opens for subscription. Investor interest begins building from this point.

For instance, in the case of Tata Technologies IPO, the GMP surged immediately after the price band announcement due to strong brand value and positive market perception.

Who Decides the Grey Market Premium?

Unlike stock exchanges, where prices are discovered through a transparent order book, the grey market is unofficial and unregulated. GMP is purely driven by demand and supply dynamics.

Large investors, brokers, and market operators often influence GMP levels. If an IPO attracts strong demand, GMP tends to rise. Conversely, if market sentiment weakens, GMP can fall sharply—sometimes overnight.

There is no single authority to verify or regulate GMP prices, making it highly speculative.

Why Does GMP Fluctuate So Much?

GMP can be extremely volatile. At one point, it may be ₹200, and the next day it could drop to ₹50 or even zero. Several factors influence these fluctuations:

IPO subscription demand
Overall stock market sentiment
Institutional investor participation
Regulatory or company-specific news

A major shift often occurs once the IPO opens for subscription. Before this phase, GMP is mostly speculative. When subscription data reveals whether institutional and HNI investors are participating heavily, GMP adjusts accordingly.

For example, Go Fashion IPO saw a GMP of around ₹300 before subscription, which rose further after strong HNI demand. In contrast, LIC IPO’s GMP fell from ₹60–₹80 to nearly zero due to weak demand.

What is Kostak Rate?

Kostak Rate refers to the price paid for an entire IPO application, irrespective of whether the seller receives allotment or not.

For example:

Issue price: ₹100
Lot size: 15 shares
Total application value: ₹1,500
Kostak rate: ₹1,000

This means the seller receives ₹1,000 just for applying. If allotment is received and the stock lists at a premium, the seller must transfer either the shares or listing gains to the buyer. If allotment is not received, the seller still keeps the kostak amount.

What is Subject to Sauda?

Subject to Sauda is a variation of the Kostak deal. In this arrangement, payment is made only if the seller receives allotment.

Because of lower risk for the buyer, Subject to Sauda rates are usually higher.

For example:

Subject to Sauda rate: ₹3,000

If the seller receives allotment, they get ₹3,000 plus the application amount (₹1,500) in exchange for shares or listing gains. If there is no allotment, the deal is cancelled and no money is exchanged.

Can You Trust GMP?

A common misconception is that a high GMP guarantees listing gains. Real-world examples show this is not always true.

Successful Predictions:

Tata Technologies IPO: GMP of around ₹475; stock listed strongly.
Nykaa IPO: GMP near ₹775; delivered massive listing gains.

Failed Predictions:

CarTrade IPO: Issue price ₹1,618; GMP ₹140; stock listed at a discount.
Hyundai Motors IPO: Issue price ₹1,960; GMP ₹62; stock listed below issue price.
Swiggy IPO: Issue price ₹390; GMP ₹0; stock listed at ₹420 with a premium.

These examples clearly show that GMP is not a reliable predictor of listing price.

Risks Associated with Grey Market Deals

GMP is unregulated and unofficial
No legal protection in case of default
Lack of transparency in price discovery
Rates are dealer-driven and must be accepted as quoted

You cannot approach SEBI or any regulatory authority if a grey market agreement fails.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Do not rely entirely on GMP—use it only as a sentiment indicator.
Understand the risks before selling IPO applications in the grey market.
Always prioritize company fundamentals while investing in IPOs.

Conclusion

The next time someone tells you that an IPO has a GMP of ₹300 and is a “sure-shot” listing gain opportunity, pause and evaluate carefully. Grey Market Premium reflects market mood, not certainty.

Do your research, understand the business, assess valuations, and make informed decisions. Smart investing is about discipline, not speculation.